So genau solltest du es dann auch nicht nehmen. Eher so die grobe Richtung.
Ausserdem widersprechen sich da auch die Quellen:
Mordor is situated in Transylvania, with Mount Doom in Romania
oder eben
Expanding upon this idea some suggest that if the map of Middle-earth is projected on our real Earth, and some of the most obvious climatological, botanical, and zoological similarities are aligned, the Hobbits' Shire might lie in the temperate climate of England, Gondor might lie in the Mediterranean Italy and Greece, Mordor in the arid Turkey and Middle East, South Gondor and Near Harad in the deserts of Northern Africa, Rhovanion in the forests of Germany and the steppes of Western and Southern Russia, and the Ice Bay of Forochel in the fjords of Norway. Far Harad may have corresponded with southern africa, and Rhûn corresponded with the lands of East Asia such as China, Mongolia, Korea, and Tibet.
Und hier nochmal O-Ton von Tolkien:
"Most people have made this mistake of thinking Middle-earth is a particular kind of earth or is another planet of the science fiction sort but it's just an old fashioned word for this world we live in, as imagined surrounded by the Ocean."